Oracle acquiring Sun close on the heels of a failed attempt by IBM has set off a lot of buzz in the industry about a possible flurry of more transactions in the days to come. Lots of names are thrown around as potential acquirers and as ones to be acquired. I will try to capture some of the potential deals that could happen and then as we go we will see how my forecast measures up against the reality.

Disclaimer: The entire list is just my creation and I do not have any information on any of these deals. Call it my wild imagination.

Disclosure: I own stocks of HP, NetApp, Cisco, EMC, IBM, Oracle and EBay through various long term investments I have made. This post is merely in line with the other technology trends I watch.

Recent Large Deals

1. HP Acquires EDS for 13B
2. Oracle Acquires Sun for 7.4B

10 Deals I think will happen

Yahoo acquired by Microsoft.

They have beaten around the bush enough. It is time to kiss and makeup. With every passing day – Google is eating their lunch so the sooner they make a decision and move on they have some chance of combating the Google lead in search and encroachment into other MS areas. The Microsoft M&A team would do well to take a course in the Oracle M&A university to quickly integrate the plethora of things the two companies do – Search, Ad Networks, Webmail, Email, MSN/Yahoo Portals, Groups .. I could go on for another day. This integration project should put the Vista release schedule to shame. I like Yahoo the company. Personally though, I would like them to say “the search race is over” and kill their search or sell it and keep their focus on content and maybe one day Google would acquire them, which is a better home.

EMC acquired by Cisco

Cisco has slowly but surely expanded and built a decent software business beyond its core networking business. It has also started entering into server/hardware business to compete with the IBM/HPs of the world. It already provides storage network switches and EMC would become a natural extension and also would give it a legitimate presence in the storage and software space.  EMC on the other hand is facing increasing challenges from Sharepoint, Oracle and IBM. HP could make a run at EMC as well but I think Cisco will eventually prevail. Documentum/eRoom would nicely complement the WebEx collaboration part in providing a strong competitor to the advances Sharepoint in making.

NetApp acquired by HP

As a rebound from EMC failure, HP will turn around and acquire NetApp. I think it would be a better fit for HP. Considering it still has large “turkey” EDS to digest, a focussed company like NetApp would be an easier desert.  IBM, Oracle and would be interested parties but Dell might make a concerted effort to acquire NetApp as well. HP is the only big storage vendor who does have a Cloud Storage strategy and acquiring NetApp would give it just that.

Twitter acquired by Google

Once deterred Google will make a sweetened offer to acquire this red-hot phenomenon. While it took sometime for Google to figure out the real business model behind YouTube, doing the same on Twitter would not be a tough problem. Apart from the corporate twitter business there are other opportunities that Google could go after. Look for Google Talk and GrandCentral to integrate into Twitter (think broadcast vmail from Twitter to your GrandCentral account – would be nice).

Skype acquired by Google

While EBay has announced its intention of spinning off the company through an IPO, it makes a lot of sense for Google to acquire Skype and use it alongwith GrandCentral etc. Once Skype goes public then there is unnecessary expenses in managing the shareholder approvals etc. It is much cheaper to acquire it before it goes public. Google can merge Google Talk with Skype (think Google Video and YouTube) and the combination of Skype and GrandCentral would be a much better corporate offering.

Sybase acquired by Microsoft

With Oracle acquiring Sun, IBM and Microsoft will be on the hook to do a deal to counter some of the leverage Oracle gains. While Oracle tries to convert the Sybase customers on Solaris to Oracle, Microsoft can get those same customers (in Financial sector). Given that the underlying codebase is essentially the same it would not be a big challenge but it definitely gives a foothold for MS in large accounts.

Citrix acquired by IBM

This is a me-too deal. With IBM shoved aside in Sun and NetApp deals, IBM will try and use this deal to expand into desktop virtualization space. Also Citrix’s product line of GoTo Meeting, Netscaler would allow IBM to effectively compete with Cisco’s WebEx and other application delivery tools.

TerraData acquired by HP

Just like people say Oracle was the most logical buyer of Sun, thanks to the friendship between Larry and Scott, this deal is all but certain given Mark Hurd’s past association with Terradata when it was part of NCR. Given the beating IBM got in losing out Sun, IBM could also make a play for TD to get back at Oracle in the Data warehousing space but HP will eventually prevail.

RedHat acquired by IBM

With Oracle gaining control of Java and MySQL and Solaris, expect Oracle to de-focus linux for a bit while trying to identify ways expand Solaris. IBM will use this opportunity to get cozy with Red Hat and get control on RHEL, JBoss and other middleware products.

Research in Motion acquired by Dell

Dell has by-and-large been a by-stander on the deals outside of being mentioned. It is on the lookout for the next growth area. The hardware business is not growing fast enough, the storage and services business is hyper competitive. So Dell will use this acquisition to get into the duopoly of Apple and RIMM of mobile computing. RIMM is already seeing Apple looming large in its review mirror and having the muscle of Dell and corporate accounts behind it would help it get further into corporations.

Bonus deal

For patiently going through my list, I offer a wildcard bonus mega deal

SAP and IBM merge to combat Oracle

Rumors surfaced a couple of years ago that SAP and Microsoft tried to do something. But the sheer magnitude of the deal (and the imminent regulatory scrutiny – not to mention the multiple product lines of business applications – none of any significant note, better sense must have prevailed.  IBM wounded from attacks by Oracle, HP and Cisco and a SAP trying to figure out where it stands in the new landscape of mega vendors decide that they can go after their common enemy in Oracle in arms. IBM has a large SAP service business and lot of SAP customers already use Cognos and DB2 – makes for a better synergy.

Let me know what you guys think. I know lot of you think this is utter b.s. But do let me know.

Other Posts you might be interested in:

• Re-sale of Software Licenses
• Killing the messenger – not a smart move
• Larry Ellison works for $1 – absurd
• SAP SaaS Strategy
• Oracle snaps up Sun

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